John james paulsen newsletter

The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of a new cycle (often associated with the beginning of a bull market) are coming into focus.

The yield curve (i.e., the 10-year bond yield less the 3-month bill yield) finally “INVERTED” in late October, raising significant fear among investors.

It is a scary-sounding word. Consider some of its synonyms: upended, capsized, backward, upset, confused, disordered, jumbled, haywire, and wrong-side-up.

Since the dot-com crash, there has been general disappointment with government economic policies—both fiscal and monetary.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, apprehension about economic programs surged, and after a brief respite from 2016-2020, the outlook since the pandemic has again darkened co